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Fiera Incrementality

ChatGPT plugin

Incrementality tests for ads

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Measure whether your ads drive results that would not have happened anyway.

Fiera Incrementality helps paid media teams choose the right test, design it, and read it:

  • Planner: turns a question (is brand search incremental? should we cut Meta prospecting?) into a test plan. Recommends the platform's own lift study when one is available, a geo experiment when channels must be compared on business data, and a switchback or a directional before/after read when nothing else is possible.
  • Geo test design: from a CSV of KPI by region and day, picks treated regions by stratified randomization, estimates the minimum detectable effect on held-out history, the test length and the cost, and writes a plan to approve before launch.
  • Geo test readout: estimates the effect with two methods (time-based regression and synthetic control), intervals from placebo tests, incremental CPA and ROAS, and robustness checks.
  • Quick incrementality: a directional read on a pause or budget change, compared with several baselines and their normal noise, plus switchback analysis for single markets.
  • Lift result review: an independent check of a lift study, vendor test or internal claim.

Results feed attribution (incrementality factors) and marketing mix models (Meridian, Robyn, PyMC-Marketing) as calibration. Methods follow the published work behind Google's TBR and Meridian GeoX, Meta's GeoLift and the synthetic control literature, with sources cited in the skills.

The analysis runs in a bundled Python script on the data you upload. It is calibrated on simulated panels: false positive rate in A/A tests, coverage of the true effect, and power at the predicted detectable effect.

Intended for performance marketing, growth and analytics teams. Limits: results are as good as the KPI data you provide; directional methods are labeled as such and do not prove causation; platform lift studies are run in the ad platform, not by this plugin.

Example prompts

  • “What is incrementality, and how do I test it for my ads?”
  • “Is our brand search incremental? Help me design a test.”
  • “Here are our orders by region and day. Design a geo holdout.”

Skills

  • geo-test-design

    Design a geo experiment (geo lift, matched market, regional holdout, go-dark, holdback or heavy-up) from a CSV of KPI by region and day. Chooses treated regions, estimates the minimum detectable effect, test length and cost, and writes the test plan. Use when the user uploads or describes geo-level data and wants to set up a test.

  • geo-test-readout

    Analyze a finished geo experiment or regional holdout from a CSV of KPI by region and day. Estimates the incremental effect with an interval, incremental CPA or ROAS, and runs robustness checks. Use when the user has run a geo test, regional go-dark, brand search blackout by region, or heavy-up and wants the result.

  • incrementality-planner

    Explain incrementality and choose how to measure whether an ad channel, campaign type or budget change drives incremental results, then plan the test. Use when someone asks what incrementality, iROAS, lift or a holdout means, if a channel is incremental, whether to pause or scale ads (brand search, PMax, Meta, TikTok, YouTube), how to run a holdout, lift study, geo test or incrementality test, or how much of their attributed conversions are real.

  • lift-result-review

    Review an incrementality or lift result someone else produced, such as a Meta or Google lift study report, a vendor's geo test, an agency deck, or an internal claim that a channel is or is not incremental. Checks design, statistics and interpretation, and says how much weight the result can carry. Use when the user shares a lift result, a test report or a screenshot and asks whether to trust it.

  • quick-incrementality

    Get a directional, low-effort read on incrementality without a formal experiment. Compares a period before and after a change (pause, budget cut, new campaign) against several baselines and their normal noise, or analyzes an on/off switchback in a single market. Use when a team paused or changed ads and wants to know if it mattered, cannot split by region, or wants a quick check before investing in a proper test.

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Capabilities
Recommend an incrementality method for a channel and decision, Design geo experiments with power analysis, Analyze geo experiments with placebo-based intervals, Directional before/after and switchback analysis, Review lift study results
Availability
Available
Version
1.0.0
Keywords
incrementality, incrementality testing, geo lift, geolift, lift study, conversion lift, brand lift, holdout test, matched market test, iroas, marketing mix modeling, meridian, paid media, google ads, meta ads
Created
October 2, 2026
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